This is the Ultimate Lowdown: Characters et Stages

Since the website is coming close to finishing the starting lineup and the game is less than 3 months away, I decided I'd use this time to predict/share my thoughts on what the final character and stage collections will look like.

First the characters:

We know that we'll get twenty characters (plus Zero Suit Samus) at the start, due to logical rounding up and the fact that we know for sure Captain Falcon & Ness/Lucas are still to be shown. We also know that Snake is in the game, but I don't think he'll be shown until November, just before the game comes out, as he most certainly is a secret character.

Okay, we got initial 20+1, and 1 secret character. How many secrets, and how many in total? I'm sticking with 35. The number of secret characters works, by not being too big or too few. Plus, I think 35 is a reasonable expansion (considering that they will be cutting characters) and gives them enough room for what's needed, as well as a few surprises.

A few things to get out of the way: it's too obvious Luigi and Ganondorf will be back. So, tack those guys back on. The recent revelation of the Ice Climbers, and the placement of their icon among the list, also leads me to believe that Mr. Game&Watch is also back. So, there's 21+3=24. The rest...I'm going to be very vague, because stuff happens.

I can guarantee we'll get another Star Fox character (whether that be Falco or Krystal or somebody else), another Fire Emblem character (whether that be Marth or somebody else), and two more Pokemon characters (whether those be Jigglypuff & Mewtwo, or some other characters). So, yeah, pretty much keeping with the number per series from Melee, which I can see them doing just because these series are popular enough to retain those numbers. 24+4=28

Now, one of the big additions to the series is third party guest characters, as you all should know (or else you are dumb). Chances are, Snake isn't going to be the only one. Back on Toukouken!, the director basically said 'I expect 1 or 2, maybe?', so I'm going to go with that max of two. 28+2=30.

Now, the last five. They could be anything, really. A character from a never-before-seen-in-Smash series? Surprise new character from an established series, such as Bowser Jr., Midna, or Ridley? Another 3rd party character? All of them possibilities.

Of course, one major possibility I'm going to single out from the others is one of the aforementioned 'Surprise new characters from an established series', that being King Dedede from Kirby. Out of all the possible secret characters we have no idea will be in or not, he seems the most likely. How so? Well, he was mentioned more than any other character on Toukouken!, and two of the other most mentioned characters on have already been revealed to be in the game (Ike and Diddy Kong), which leads me to believe that it might be very important tool in character prediction.

For the record, aside from Dedede (who was mentioned five times), the following characters were mentioned more than once on that site:

Ridley (Metroid) & Geno (Super Mario RPg) were both mentioned four times.

Krystal (Star Fox), Captain Olimar (Pikmin), and Windwaker Link were all mentioned three times.

Isaac (Golden Sun), King K. Rool (Donkey Kong Country), the Human character from Animal Crossing, Claus and Lucas (Mother 3), Jeff (Earthbound), Oguma (from the same Fire Emblem game as Marth), Demiru from the Japan-only Tomato Adventure, Lip from Panel de Pon (the Japanese Tetris Attack), the Ouendan Squad (Osu! Tatakae! Ouendan!, the Japanese predecessor to Elite Beat Agents), Sukapon (from another Japan-only game, Joy Mecha Fight), and Takamaru (yet another Japan-only game, Nazo no Murasame-jo) were all mentioned twice. So were the Eggplant Wizard from Kid Icarus and Professor Kawasima from Brain Age, but I ain't taking either of these suggestions seriously. It is also to be noted that the Lip's Stick item makes Lip's likelihood of appearing very low.

So there you go. The last four could be any of those, it could be none of those. I'm ready to be surprised.

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Now, stages.

The site has featured twelve of them. We have seen one other (not counting Snake's stage, which like Snake won't be shown til later), Mario Circuit. I also don't expect Mario Circuit to be shown until further down the line, and I'll show you why in just a moment.

In Melee, there were 4 more stages than characters at the start of the game. I kinda expect this trend to continue in Brawl, but maybe not to that degree. So, my predicted number of starting stages is 22. This gives one stage for every character and two extras (those being Battlefield and Smashville, the only 'unaligned' stages we know of so far). With the 13 we've seen so far, that leaves 9.

Let's start with the obvious: four series we know are in the game still need their stages shown (Metroid, F-Zero, Earthbound, and Ice Climber). Knock it down to 5 more. Then things get a bit more interesting.

Mario Circuit is Mario's secondary stage, and I fully expect other series will get secondary stages as well. The only obvious one to me right now is Kirby, as the pink one himself still needs a stage just for him (as Battleship Halberd is Meta Knight's stage). But what 4 other series should get secondary stages? Zelda is pretty high on the list, as is Donkey Kong (both series having two characters does make the difference). Both those series had two stages at the start of Melee as well, but the other two I'll say didn't: Pokemon (for Pokemon Trainer, why not) and Metroid.

Of course, there is also the possibility that the 'Underground' mentioned in the Castle Siege update will be a stage unto itself, but we'll have to see. There is also the possibility of them bringing back the classic Mario Kingdom stages, but again, we'll have to wait to find out.

Other than the ones mentioned above, I don't imagine any other series getting a second stage, aside from Star Fox and maybe Kid Icarus (the Underworld would be fun). Because of the amount of series being represented this time, I imagine they will make an attempt to balance the stage distribution so that every series gets a stage. So, I'll say that it's not likely that series like Yoshi, Wario, and Fire Emblem will get more than one stage.

Secret stages-wise, I expect all the third parties and any other new series introduced with secret characters to get a stage. I also expect there to be a new Final Destination. And if Mr.G&W is back, you know there will be a Super Flat World to go with him.

I don't actually expect the number of stages to exceed 30, despite there being more characters. I don't know, for me, having more than 30 would seem overwhelming. It would at least allow them to give every series, including secret ones, a stage.

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Remember, these are only my ideas based on whatever facts or opinions I've accumulated over time. They could right or wrong. And really, seeing your expectations thrown out the window is as exciting as anything when it comes to Smash Bros., with the whole 'wow, I never would have of that!' factor.